Major fragmentation events can instantly generate thousands of new debris objects, dramatically increasing collision risks.
SpaceDyS provides advanced fragmentation modelling and debris cloud evolution analysis, supporting agencies and operators in emergency response and long-term mitigation planning.
Our Fragmentation Analysis Framework

Event Characterization: Immediately following an anomaly, we provide the technical framework to assess the “how” and “where” of the event.

• Initial Assessment: Determining the exact time, location, and nature of the fragmentation (Explosion vs. Collision).
• Cloud Evolution: Modeling the initial dispersion of debris using specialized algorithms to predict how the “cloud” of new fragments will spread along the orbital plane.
• Parent-Child Correlation: Utilizing advanced tracking data to link new objects back to the parent satellite.

Collision Risk Assessment: Quantifying the immediate and mid-term risk that the new debris poses to operational satellites and high-value assets like the International Space Station (ISS).

• Short and mid-term conjunction analysis
• Risk evaluation for operational satellites and critical assets

Long-Term Environmental Impact: Beyond the immediate danger, SpaceDyS evaluates the “ecological” footprint of the event on the orbital regime.

• Kessler Syndrome Modeling: Analyzing how the new debris population increases the statistical probability of secondary collisions.
• Orbital Lifetime Predictions: Estimating how long fragments will remain in orbit before atmospheric re-entry, factoring in solar activity and atmospheric drag.
• Regulatory Compliance: Providing the data necessary for agencies to update their space debris mitigation guidelines based on the new environmental reality.

Re-entry Prediction
SpaceDyS also delivers high-accuracy satellite re-entry prediction services, combining radar and GPS data with advanced atmospheric models to estimate time and impact location.