High-Accuracy Satellite Re-entry Prediction

Uncontrolled satellite re-entry poses risks to infrastructure and populated areas. Accurate prediction requires advanced orbit determination and atmospheric modelling.

SpaceDyS provides high-precision re-entry prediction services, combining:

• GNSS and radar tracking data
• High-fidelity atmospheric drag models
• Numerical orbit propagation
• Uncertainty analysis and covariance propagation

Technical Heritage
SpaceDyS contributed to ESA’s 2016 study “Benchmarking Re-entry Prediction Uncertainties EXPRO-GOCE”, focused on precise orbital reconstruction of ESA’s GOCE satellite during atmospheric decay.
Our expertise enables:

• Centimeter-level orbit reconstruction (a posteriori processing)
• Accurate decay time estimation
• Impact corridor prediction

These capabilities support agencies and operators in managing end-of-life scenarios responsibly and safely.